More Procrastination

In the course of the twelve weeks the CPE was the focus of much attention in France, a lot was said about the "problem" and, especially abroad, the need to modernize the French labor market. In the end, it was not at all clear how the proposed solution was supposed to fix the problem, largely because there was no concensus as to what the nature of the problem really was (that is why a law passed in 2004 requires participation of stakeholders in design of labor market changes, and much of the hullaballoo was because Villepin somehow forgot about that requirement).

In an article in Le Monde, 23 March 2006, Florence Audier, Laurence Lizé et Christophe Ramaux, economists at the Université Paris-I, gave their reading of the unemployment of the young in France:

• it is generally thought that one in four "young" is unemployed in France.
• the rate in January 2006 is 22% of those in the job market
• about two-thirds of the 16-24 year-olds in France are in school (education and training). While students are increasingly seeking part-time jobs, students are not counted in the unemployed.
• This age group contributes less than 8% of the total unemployed in France, in line with the average in Europe-15.
• 70 % of graduates have "permanent" jobs within three years after graduation. This rises to 80% for Masters and PhD graduates, but remains around 68 % - 73 % for technicians and vocational school graduates.
• It is the unskilled who have big problems: only 52 % have permanent jobs after three years on the market; furthermore, when activity slows, they (the temporary workforce) are the slack that is cut.

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But might a more "liberal" system integrate the young in the economy better or faster? According to OECD statistics regarding "Youths aged between 15 and 19 who are not in education nor in employment", we see that "exclusion" is much higher in the U.S.A. and U.K than it is in France:

	Males			*	Females
Country	2000	2001	2002	*	2000	2001	2002
UK	8.194	8.343	8.234	*	7.88	7.972	8.937
USA	6.758	6.941	6.423	*	7.254	8.03	7.541
Germany	5.173	4.889	4.268	*	6.273	5.331	5.149
Sweden	4,733	5,372	5,93	*	2,443	3,082	3,258
France	3.364	3.374	3.651	*	3.162	3.457	3.193
Denmark	1.868	4.713	2.367	*	3.585	2.708	2.43
Norway	2,285	3,34	3,673	*	1,152	2,735	2,757

So the 15-19 year-olds seem to be in not-so-bad good shape in France. If there is a problem, then, it seems to be in the 20-24 year-old bracket

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Tags: France | employment| Villepin