Wednesday, February 06, 2008


Political Groundhog Day?

There was lots of calling the February 5 primaries (and cauci) "Super Tuesday", for several reasons (number of delegates at stake, proximity to "Super Bowl Sunday"). What was little mentioned (that I saw) was that it also fell on the first Tuesday after Groundhog Day! And it looks like the front-runners (Dems, anyway) have seen their shadows, and there will be six more weeks (or even months) of nomination-seeking. As the L. A. Times put it, "With no losers, the fight goes on".

The Votemaster wrote just hours prior (when he posted all the latest polls) :
Missouri is another state to watch. It is a genuine bellwether, picking the winner in nearly every presidential election since WWII. Also important is the turnout there. If one party has a massive turnout and the other does not, that says something about what might happen in November. Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) has been campaigning her heart out for Obama this week, which may help him with women there.

And so what happened in Missouri? Practical ties: Clinton 48% - Obama 49%, and McCain 33% - Romney 29% - Huckabee 32%.

Lots of "analysis" will no doubt be fueled by all this confusion. Among the obvious observations, on home state advantage:
  • Clinton and Huckabee both obtained their top scores in Arkansas (69% and 60%, respectively). It is his home state -- he has been its governor -- and is "a home state", at least in a sense, for Clinton, who moved to New York after D.C. (and did better there than in New York, which she did carry, however).
  • Obama and McCain both came out on top in their homes states, but did even better somewhere else. Obama in Georgia (66%), McCain in New Jersey (55%).
  • Romney, too, benefitted from the home-state advantage in Massachussets, but his score in Utah -- 90% -- could indicate influence of religion on political choices in America. How modern.
BTW: Do you know what Phil predicted?

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