Sunday, March 02, 2008

 

Climate Change: Not so fast!

This is the kind of writing/research/proof-reading/fact-checking failure that delights climate-change deniers:

The Met Office, Britain's weather agency, says that by 2030, Mediterranean rainfall is expected to be down by 25% and annual average air temperatures in Europe are likely to be up by as much as 42 degrees by 2080. In France, truffle stock is shriveling - Los Angeles Times By Jenny Barchfield, Associated Press
March 2, 2008


We aren't informed whether the "42 degrees" are C or F, but the statement that average annual temperatures would rise by that much is absurd even if the said rise is in degrees F (equivalent to "only" about 23 degrees C). For perspective, the average annual temperature in the continental U.S. in 2006
Based on preliminary data, the 2006 annual average temperature was 55 degrees F—2.2 degrees F (1.2 degrees C) above the 20th Century mean and 0.07 degrees F (0.04 degrees C) warmer than 1998. NOAA originally estimated in mid-December that the 2006 annual average temperature for the contiguous United States would likely be 2 degrees F (1.1 degrees C) above the 20th Century mean, which would have made 2006 the third warmest year on record, slightly cooler than 1998 and 1934, according to preliminary data. Further analysis of annual temperatures and an unusually warm December caused the change in records.NOAA REPORTS 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD FOR U.S.

So, if the temperature rose as much in the contiguous states as claimed it will in Europe, the average annual temperature would rise from 55° F to 97° F by 2030. I'm not sure where I would situate my personal threshold for credible temperature changes, but I am sure that that is well outside the range I consider credible.

This does not make me a global warming and climate change denier.
2007 Was Tied As Earth's Second Warmest Year
"As we predicted last year, 2007 was warmer than 2006, continuing the strong warming trend of the past 30 years that has been confidently attributed to the effect of increasing human-made greenhouse gases," said James Hansen, director of NASA GISS.
Please have a look at the graph GISS prepared of global annual surface temperatures (1880-2007) relative to 1951-1980 mean temperatures.
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center (2008, January 17). 2007 Was Tied As Earth's Second Warmest Year. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 2, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2008/01/080116114150.htm



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